With Boris Tadic's re-election in Serbia's 2008 Presidential election, national attention now turns toward Kosovo and the breakaway province's desire for independence.

On February 3, 2008, in the second round runoff of Serbia’s Presidential election. incumbent President Boris Tadic scored a narrow victory over hardline, pro-Russian nationalist opponent Tomislav Nikolic. With 98.8% of ballots counted, the Serbian Republican Electoral Commission (RIK) announced that Tadic received 50.57% of the vote compared to Nikolic’s 47.71%. Voter turnout was reported to be 67%.

First Round Voting

According to official results, Nikolic won the January 20 first round by almost 200,000 votes (candidate, percentage of votes, and total votes received):

• Tomislav Nikolic - Serbian Radical Party: 39.99% (1,646,172)
• Boris Tadic - Democratic Party: 35.39% (1,457,030)
• Velimir Ilic - New Serbia: 7.43% (305,828)
• Milutin Mrkonjic - Socialist Party of Serbia: 5.97% (245,889)
• Cedomir Jovanovic - Liberal Democratic Party: 5.34% (219,689)
• Istvan Pastor - Hungarian Coalition: 2.26% (93,039)
• Milanka Karic - Serbian Strength Movement: 0.98% (40,332)
• Marijan Ristisevic - People’s Peasant Party/United Peasant Party: 0.45% (18,500)
• Jugoslav Dobricanin - Reformist Party: 0.29% (11,894)

Since no candidate received an absolute majority, Serbian election law required a second round of balloting. The first round of voting saw the country’s highest single voter turnout (61%) since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000.

Over 3,000 monitors from Serbia's nongovernmental Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) observed polling locations, though the election commission said it would ban U.S. and British observers due to their support for Kosovo’s independence.

Election Background

The entire election was scheduled and held in accordance with Serbia's new Constitution, adopted by the National Assembly on November 10, 2006. On December 11, 2007, five presidential election laws were passed by Parliamentary majority on December 11, including the lengthening of the presidential term from four to five years. Two days later, National Assembly Speaker Oliver Dulic scheduled the election for January 20, with February 3 reserved for a possible second round.

Support for Second Round Candidates

In the election’s second round, supporters of liberal, pro-Western candidate Cedomir Jovanovic were expected to vote for Tadic, while backers of the Socialist Party’s Milutin Mrkonjic would support Nikolic.

Leading up to the runoff vote, it was not known which candidate would receive the backing of Velimir Ilic’s supporters. In the first round, Ilic was backed by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who wanted to win concessions from Tadic in return for support in the second round.

Election Analysis

Tadic’s re-election appears to be a choice for pro-Western reform. He has been a strong advocate of Serbian integration into the European Union, while Nikolic wants to remain close to Russia, and favors a neutral stance between East and West.

Still in the balance is Kosovo’s declaration of independence, expected to occur in March. Will Tadic be able to stand his ground against nationalists and Kosovo hardliners, including Kostunica?

While a positive sign for the West, Tadic’s narrow victory underlies a continuing and pronounced divide across the country between nationalists and pro-Western supporters.

References

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia Official Website.

Tran, Mark. “Serbian election result muddies waters for Kosovo’s independence.” Guardian Unlimited. February 4, 2008.

Tzortzl, Ellie. “Nationalist Leads in Serbia Poll.” The St. Petersburg Times. January 22, 2008.

Tzortzl, Ellie. “Serbia election pits nationalism against West.” Reuters UK. January 17, 2008.